World Bank Projects Nigeria’s Growth to Accelerate to 4.4% in 2026 and 2027
In its January 2026 Global Economic Prospects report, the World Bank has forecast that Nigeria’s economy will expand by 4.4% in both 2026 and 2027. This revised outlook, which aligns with the institution’s earlier Nigeria Development Update from October 2025, represents an upgrade for 2026 from a previous estimate of 3.7% and signals the fastest growth pace the country has seen in over a decade.
The upgraded projection reflects improving macroeconomic conditions, driven primarily by sustained expansion in the services sector, a recovery in agricultural production, and a modest pickup in non-oil industrial activities. The World Bank identifies these areas as the key pillars supporting economic performance throughout the forecast period. This sustained emphasis on non-oil growth underscores the gradual impact of Nigeria’s economic diversification agenda, which aims to reduce historic reliance on crude oil exports.
The report notes that ongoing economic reforms, particularly within the tax system, combined with continued prudent monetary policy, are expected to support economic activity and strengthen macroeconomic stability. These policy measures are anticipated to improve investor sentiment and reduce inflation further. The World Bank also indicated that higher domestic oil output is expected to counterbalance lower international oil prices, thereby helping to boost fiscal revenues and strengthen the external balance. For long-term development, stable policies key to maintaining this positive trajectory cannot be overstated, as they provide the framework for sustained investment and growth.
A stronger services sector and improved agricultural output have the potential to create jobs, stabilize prices, and broaden the government’s revenue base over time. For stakeholders, the World Bank’s forecast provides a measure of confidence that recent reforms may begin to yield tangible results. However, the country must continue to navigate existing economic vulnerabilities even as it approaches this period of accelerated growth.
