Nigeria’s Capital Inflows Surge to $16.7 Billion, Highest Since 2019
Newly released data from the National Bureau of Statistics reveals Nigeria’s capital importation reached $16.78 billion in the first nine months of 2025, surpassing the full-year 2024 total of $12.32 billion. This marks the strongest inflow performance in six years, driven overwhelmingly by foreign portfolio investment. The report, which includes long-delayed figures for the second and third quarters, confirms a dramatic rebound in foreign capital, despite school abduction crises and other security challenges that often concern international investors.
Portfolio Investment Dominates, Raising Sustainability Questions
The structure of these inflows reveals a heavy reliance on potentially volatile capital. Foreign portfolio investment constituted over 97% of the total $16.7 billion raised from January to September 2025. In the third quarter alone, portfolio flows of $4.85 billion accounted for over 80% of inflows, with strong bond investments and sustained interest in money market instruments. This concentration echoes the 2019 inflow surge, which was also fueled by a high-interest rate environment. The current composition raises important questions about the sustainability of these liquidity-driven gains and the economy’s ability to convert them into durable, long-term expansion.
FDI Remains Muted as Banking Sector Attracts Bulk of Inflows
In contrast to the booming portfolio investment, Foreign Direct Investment remains a minor contributor. FDI showed gradual improvement from $126 million in Q1 to $296 million in Q3, but its cumulative total for the nine-month period remains under $600 million. Sectoral analysis shows the Banking sector attracted over $3.1 billion in each quarter, consistently accounting for more than half of all inflows. The Financing sector followed, attracting $1.86 billion in Q3. Together, these two sectors absorbed roughly 70–80% of total capital importation. Other sectors, including Oil & Gas, technology, and real estate, attracted minimal capital relative to their size.
The publication of this data concludes a prolonged delay from the statistics bureau, which had only released Q1 figures for nearly six months. This delay had left investors questioning the transparency and composition of the inflows, even as senior officials cited strong headline numbers. The released figures now provide clarity, showing a recovery reminiscent of when the AGF requests police and other agencies to bolster economic confidence. While the headline growth is significant, the dominance of short-term portfolio investment suggests the nation’s economic narrative is complex, much like when troops nab bandit leaders yet security concerns persist. The sustainability of this capital surge, crucial for a nation that has seen its stature humbled again in global FDI rankings, will depend on attracting more stable investment forms in the coming quarters.
