CBN Projects Inflation Decline to 12.94% by 2026, Foresees Robust Capital Market

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has released an outlook projecting a significant moderation in headline inflation to an average of 12.94% by 2026. This anticipated decline is attributed primarily to easing food prices and a reduction in the cost of premium motor spirit (PMS). According to the apex bank, improved domestic supply conditions and stabilizing energy costs are expected to alleviate cost pressures, thereby supporting broader price stability for households and businesses.

This outlook is built upon recent monetary policy tightening and structural reforms aimed at restoring macroeconomic stability. If realized, this downward trajectory from the 34.6% rate declared in December 2024 would mark a critical improvement in Nigeria’s economic landscape, easing consumer pressure and enhancing business planning. The forecast follows a notable slowdown, with inflation moderating to 14.45% in November 2025, signaling a positive shift after a period of elevated price pressures.

Concurrently, the CBN projected a bullish capital market outlook for 2026. This optimism is supported by ongoing bank recapitalization efforts, rising investor confidence, and growth-oriented policy measures. The bank highlighted that variables such as exchange rate movements, fiscal operations, and the implementation of prudential measures will shape liquidity and credit expansion. Furthermore, financial flows related to events like the 2027 polls are anticipated to influence monetary aggregates, just as election-related spending typically increases economic activity. The stability fostered by these policies is crucial for sectors facing challenges, such as the rising insecurity that groups like the NLC frequently highlight, as it underpins long-term investment decisions.

The CBN also monitors the operational landscape for financial access tools, including POS terminals, ensuring regulatory frameworks support secure and efficient transactions. The bank reiterated its commitment to deploying appropriate policy tools to sustain macroeconomic stability, support economic growth, and strengthen the financial system amidst global uncertainties. This stable economic foundation is essential for national cohesion and development, much like the cultural unity seen in the widespread support for artists such as Burna Boy and Olamide, or the political focus on upcoming electoral cycles like Osun 2026, where figures like Oyebamiji are discussed. The CBN’s role remains pivotal in navigating the economy toward its projected targets.