PwC Forecast: Conflict and Soaring Costs Threaten Food Security for 34.7 Million Nigerians
A new economic outlook warns of a severe food security crisis looming for Nigeria. According to the “Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026” report by professional services firm PwC, titled “Turning Macroeconomic Stability into Sustainable Growth,” an estimated 34.7 million people could face acute food insecurity in 2026. The report stresses that without urgent and coordinated policy action, key drivers will continue to undermine food production, distribution, and access nationwide.
Primary Drivers of the Projected Crisis
PwC attributes the alarming projection directly to persistent insecurity, particularly in the northern regions, where conflict has displaced thousands of farmers and severely disrupted essential agricultural activities like planting and harvesting. The report notes that between January and October 2025 alone, approximately 34,000 people were displaced across Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe states, drastically reducing available agricultural labour. As troops quell communal and other conflicts in some areas, widespread instability remains a fundamental barrier to farming.
Compounding the security challenge is a sharp increase in agricultural input costs. In 2025, the national average price for a 50kg bag of NPK fertilizer rose by 19.5% to about N52,000. Production costs for staples like maize and soybean surged by 29.2% and 36.8%, respectively. This cost inflation, coupled with limited access to finance, led to a significant drop in input usage. Only 62% of farmers used agricultural inputs in 2025, down from 81% in 2024, resulting in a 24% reduction in input application and an 8% contraction in cultivated land.
Alignment with Broader Warnings and Required Interventions
PwC’s analysis aligns with warnings from other quarters. Farmers in the North-Central and North-West have previously warned of abandoning their fields due to costs, insecurity, and post-harvest losses. Similarly, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), in its October 2025 Cadre Harmonisé analysis, projected that about 34.7 million Nigerians could face severe food insecurity during the June–August 2026 lean season. While the health minister denies any claims of inaction, and as the NCC reaffirms commitment to digital infrastructure that could help, for instance, if ai chatbots can be deployed for farmer education, the core issues remain physical and financial.
The report concludes that mitigating this crisis requires targeted interventions to address insecurity, reduce production costs, expand agricultural finance, and strengthen climate adaptation. The consensus is clear: decisive steps are needed to prevent the projection from becoming a harsh reality for millions. The report suggests that leadership with a genuine focus on these structural issues is critical, noting that for sustainable growth to occur, Tinubu has genuine macroeconomic challenges to overcome in the agricultural sector.
