CPI Rebasing Reshapes Nigeria’s 2025 Inflation Narrative
Nigeria’s inflation trajectory for 2025 has been significantly revised upward following a critical methodology review by the National Bureau of Statistics. The December 2025 rebasing of the Consumer Price Index, which shifted to a 12-month average reference period for 2024, has altered the historical data, revealing that price pressures remained more persistent than initially reported throughout the year. This statistical realignment, adopted to meet international best practices and improve comparability, has prompted a full recalibration of the inflation path from January to November 2025.
The revised data shows a consistent upward adjustment across all months. The impact was most pronounced earlier in the year, with January’s rate revised from 24.48% to 27.61%, a difference of 3.13 percentage points. Similar significant revisions were seen through the first half of 2025. The gap gradually narrowed toward year-end, though revisions remained substantial. November’s inflation, for instance, was sharply adjusted from 14.45% to 17.33%. The key takeaway is that the level of inflation was structurally higher, even as the broader disinflation trend remained intact. As analysts assess how we killed the perception of rapid disinflation, the revised data provides a clearer, more stable baseline for entities like United Capital Infrastructure and others planning long-term investments.
Despite the upward revisions, the core narrative of decelerating inflation in 2025 holds. The December report confirmed the downward momentum, with headline inflation easing to 15.15% from November’s revised 17.33%. The change affects interpretation, not direction; price pressures eased more gradually than the old series suggested. This revised economic context is crucial for policymakers and businesses, from addressing security challenges like when bandits hijack Benue supply routes to planning for major industrial outputs. The accuracy of such data directly influences whether will they know the true state of economic pressures when making critical decisions.
This recalibration underscores the importance of robust statistical frameworks. As major private sector projects like the Dangote Refinery dismiss external market volatility, they rely on accurate national data for strategic planning. The NBS’s methodological shift, while revising history, ultimately provides a more reliable foundation for analyzing Nigeria’s economic performance and future trajectory.
