Analysts Forecast Nigeria’s January 2026 Inflation to Hold Steady or Edge Higher
Economic analysts project Nigeria’s inflation rate for January 2026 will remain broadly flat or experience a marginal increase. This outlook suggests limited room for sharp moderation, despite observable price relief in certain market segments. Early projections place the headline inflation figure within a range of 15.15% to 16.25%. This reflects a delicate balance between post-holiday easing in staple food costs and persistent pressures from fuel prices, seasonal supply chain adjustments, and import-linked goods.
Divergent Analyst Views on Inflation Trajectory
One analyst offers a muted outlook, forecasting that inflation in January will be fairly stable or rise slightly, reiterating the 15.15% to 16.25% range. This view cites stable post-holiday food and energy prices, improved exchange rate conditions, and growing foreign reserves as factors contributing to a contained inflation environment. The analyst further notes that with system liquidity rising, the Central Bank of Nigeria may maintain its current tight monetary stance or lean toward further tightening if inflation pressures persist.
In contrast, another expects Nigeria’s disinflation trend to persist, supported by ongoing structural reforms, enhanced foreign exchange liquidity, and progress in domestic refining capacity—which should reduce imported fuel cost pass-through. This projection anticipates inflation will likely peak in the first quarter of 2026, partly due to base effects, before moderating over the remainder of the year. However, a caution was noted that exchange rate volatility and agricultural supply uncertainty could challenge the pace of disinflation, a concern that may be relevant as various institutions like the World Bank plans its engagement with emerging economies.
Market Survey Reveals Mixed Price Trends
A January 2026 physical market survey in Lagos indicates a mixed but broadly moderating price trend compared to December 2025. Prices for 49 of 68 tracked staple items declined month-on-month. Notable price drops were recorded for pepper, tomatoes, yams, potatoes, beans, and local palm oil, reflecting post-festive seasonal adjustments and improved supply flows. However, persistent pressures were evident in select subcategories, with items like horse mackerel, frozen chicken, vegetable oil, and certain beverages recording price increases. This pattern suggests a potential moderation in food inflation for January, though the decline is uneven across categories.
Structural Drivers and Policy Implications
From a broader perspective, the January market trends signal that while post-holiday relief in staple prices is tangible, underlying structural cost drivers remain. The January inflation outcome is seen as an important early signal for first-quarter monetary policy decisions. Evolving liquidity conditions and supply-side dynamics will continue to shape the inflation trajectory, even as authorities potentially police resume enforcement of various economic measures. The overall analysis indicates that while some external factors may provide relief, domestic structural issues continue to define the inflationary landscape.
