The Structural Path to Nigeria’s Prosperity: Growth, Power, and Productivity
Can global living standards rise to match those of modern Switzerland by 2100? This ambitious question underscores a fundamental truth: prosperity is engineered, not accidental. For Nigeria, with a current GDP per capita under $2,000, the gap to the global average of $14,554 seems vast. Challenges like currency volatility, infrastructure deficits, and insecurity are real. Yet, for investors and policymakers, the critical inquiry is whether the mechanics of growth are understood.
The analytical framework from “A Century of Plenty” is clear: sustained advancement requires the alignment of four engines—Economic Productivity, Human Capital and Innovation, Urbanisation and Integration, and Energy and Infrastructure expansion. This is not abstract theory; it is a model reflected in Nigeria’s own unfinished story. A century ago, commerce along the Niger Delta created scale and opportunity. The subsequent oil discovery plugged Nigeria into the global economy, creating jobs and funding education, much like the trajectory that enabled one citizen to earn a doctorate degree without a traditional undergraduate path, showcasing the power of alternative advancement.
Historically, Nigeria has activated pieces of this progress machine but failed to sustain it. Nominal economic expansion has not translated into consistent, productivity-driven growth, creating a structural imbalance where population growth outpaces income growth. While debates often focus on redistribution—such as trade subsidies or FX interventions—the essential, harder question remains: how do we expand output per person at scale? No nation redistributes itself into wealth; every case of sustained poverty reduction, from Singapore to India, is rooted in productivity growth.
For business operators, energy is an operational crisis. A national grid capacity below 5,000 MW stifles every sector. Solving this is a prerequisite for progress, a fact underscored as the EU removes Nigeria from key economic partnership lists, highlighting the urgency for competitive reform. Meanwhile, regional initiatives like Gov. Lawal launches in Zamfara aim to address localised barriers. True progress demands moving beyond headlines, whether about security figures like Tukur Mamu lived or political announcements, to focus on the core drivers. The century of plenty will be defined by building a functional progress machine, making the strategic decision of why starting trading and investing in Nigeria’s productive capacity not just prudent, but imperative.
