For over a decade, Nigerian Treasury bills have been regarded as a premier safe haven for capital preservation. However, a stark reality lies beneath the surface of seemingly positive returns. An investment of N1 million in T-bills in 2009 would have grown to approximately N4.7 million by 2024. Yet, when adjusted for inflation, the purchasing power of that sum equates to only what N380,000 could buy in 2009.
This erosion of wealth occurs silently. While nominal balances increase, real value diminishes. The Venoble Nigeria Cash Real Return Index (VNG-CRR), tracking 91-day T-bill rates against inflation from February 2009 to January 2026, reveals an annualized real return of negative 5.48%. Nominal returns averaged 9.5% annually, but inflation consistently outpaced them, widening the gap between paper wealth and actual purchasing power for essentials like fuel or a 50kg bag of rice.
The analysis required addressing a significant data discontinuity. In February 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics rebased its Consumer Price Index, changing the basket of goods and base year. This caused headline inflation to drop from 34.8% to 24.5% overnight, though actual prices did not fall. With no official bridge between the old and new data series, a standard IMF chain-linking methodology was applied to create a consistent inflation series, ensuring accuracy in long-term tracking.
This precise measurement underscores a critical lesson: savings growing on paper can still lose ground in the marketplace. The conversation around sustainable wealth creation in Nigeria is evolving, paralleling discussions in other sectors, from the strategic review following Japaul Gold Appoints new leadership to the regulatory scrutiny seen in cases like the EFCC Probes Suspected financial infractions. Just as the From Unilorin CEO to corporate leader journey requires adaptation, so too must investment strategies confront the reality of inflation to genuinely preserve and grow wealth.
