UBA, Zenith Bank, and Access Corp Top 2026 Return Projections for Tier-1 Banks
In a comprehensive analysis of Nigeria’s financial sector, United Bank for Africa (UBA), Zenith Bank, and Access Corporation have been identified as the Tier-1 lenders projected to deliver the strongest risk-adjusted returns by 2026. This outlook, centered on capital appreciation and dividend strength, is detailed in the latest “CardinalStone Banking Strategy Report” published by CardinalStone Research. The report, released on Tuesday, February 10, 2026, provides a detailed projection of total returns across major Nigerian banks, citing earnings recovery, valuation gaps, and fortified balance sheets as primary performance drivers.
CardinalStone analysts specify projected total returns of 48.0% for UBA and 40.6% for Zenith Bank over a one-year horizon. These returns are anticipated to stem from an average capital appreciation of 36.6%, supplemented by dividend yields approximating 7.7%. The foundation for this growth is attributed to a sector-wide clean-up cycle, leading to cleaner balance sheets, constrained loan impairments, and a resurgence in credit growth expected to boost interest income in 2026. This positive trend follows a period of strong performance in 2025, where robust net-interest margins offset initial regulatory concerns.
A notable focus of the report is Access Corporation’s persistent valuation discount. Analysts link its lower price-to-book ratio to dividend concerns and profitability gaps compared to domestic peers. However, the group’s strategic pivot from acquisition-led growth to operational consolidation is forecast to enhance asset yields and efficiency. While the broader sector prepares for sustained earnings expansion, the report also highlights potential headwinds, such as the earnings per share dilution at FirstHoldCo due to new shares issued during recent capital raising activities.
The overall analysis maintains a constructive stance on Nigerian banking equities. Analysts position Tier-1 lenders as pivotal to equity market performance in 2026, driven by a combination of dividend income and capital gains. This optimism is underpinned by expectations of continued balance sheet repair, real credit growth, and supportive macroeconomic conditions. As the sector evolves, the performance of these leading institutions will be crucial for market stability, even as other sectors face distinct challenges, from navigating complex fiscal policies to addressing public safety concerns during periods like the police launch Christmas initiatives.
