The world has entered a new era in which extreme weather is no longer the exception but the expected condition, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres warned on Monday, as he urged leaders gathered at the COP31 climate conference in Turkey to “get serious” about the crisis.
In a statement issued as the summit opened in Antalya, Guterres described a planet under compounding pressure, saying a supersized El Niño was colliding with a world already superheated by man-made climate change. He called on governments to respond on three fronts: cutting emissions faster, accelerating a just transition away from fossil fuels, and delivering the finance and protection that vulnerable countries need.
WMO report paints a record-breaking picture
The secretary-general’s warning coincided with the release of a report by the UN’s World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), which found that 2026 has extended a run of exceptional global temperatures, shrinking ice and rising seas. According to the agency, each of the past 12 years ranks among the 12 hottest on record, and this year is expected to be among the hottest ever measured.
“What we are seeing gives new meaning to the phrase off the charts,” WMO chief Celeste Saulo told reporters in Geneva. She cautioned that the current exceptionally strong El Niño could drive further heat and extreme weather well into next year, adding: “We should prepare for another record-breaking year in 2027.”
The WMO reported that the global average surface temperature between January and September was approximately 1.47 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average. This year’s El Niño, expected to be the strongest since at least 1950, could push that figure higher before the year ends.
John Kennedy, the WMO’s climate information chief, said preliminary data place 2026 among the four hottest years on record. He noted, however, that “with the El Niño developing, we might see when the final numbers come in that we’re close to the top.”
Oceans, ice and rising seas under strain
El Niño is a naturally occurring phenomenon that releases heat from the ocean, and Saulo pointed out that the ocean this year has been the warmest ever measured. An El Niño is declared when sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific run half a degree above average; from now through January, the WMO forecasts they may reach 3.8 degrees above average.
The agency also reported that global sea level stood at its highest on record, freshwater resources were dwindling, and glaciers continued a long-term retreat. In 2025, the annual loss of ice mass was enough to fill five Olympic swimming pools every second of the year, it said.
Saulo warned that the warming ocean is “supercharging our weather,” with El Niño acting as a risk multiplier. “Heatwaves, tropical cyclones and rainstorms are intensifying faster than our historical baselines prepared us for,” she said.
Early warning systems offer a measure of progress
Despite the grim findings, the WMO highlighted one encouraging development: a significant rise in the number of countries equipped with essential multi-hazard early warning systems, from 55 in 2015 to 136 last year.
The agency urged COP31 participants to ensure greater investment in sustained global observations, data collection and forecasting, which it said are necessary for those systems to function effectively. As delegates meet in Antalya, the message from the UN’s scientific and political leadership was clear: the tools to anticipate disasters are improving, but the window to slow the forces driving them is narrowing.
