Nigeria’s shift away from fossil fuels to cleaner energy is running into two stubborn obstacles: turning federal climate promises into real action at the state level, and preparing workers and communities for the economic shock of moving away from oil and gas. Experts speaking at the 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31) in Antalya, Türkiye, say both challenges must be tackled deliberately if the country’s energy transition is to succeed.
A Strong Framework That Stops at the Federal Gate
Deborah Anumenechi, Managing Director of Green Protocol Nigeria, told PREMIUM TIMES that Nigeria has already built a credible climate action framework at the federal level. The real test, she argued, lies in implementation, which must now extend to states with widely varying capacity and progress.
“The regulatory framework is beautiful, like works at a federal level, but I think what we need to start looking at is the state action,” she said. In her view, the challenge is not the absence of national policies but the need to adapt them to the circumstances of individual states. Federal policies must be translated into state-level priorities so that national climate commitments produce practical outcomes across the country.
Her comments come as Nigeria tries to balance its climate commitments against the need to expand electricity access, industrialise and protect livelihoods in an economy still heavily dependent on oil and gas. The country has committed to net-zero emissions by 2060 and has developed an Energy Transition Plan outlining pathways to cut emissions in the power, cooking, oil and gas, transport and industrial sectors. The plan also recognises the need to address energy poverty and manage potential job losses as global demand for fossil fuels declines, envisaging a transition in which cleaner energy expands while development needs are met.
Why State Governments Hold the Key
Translating national ambitions into action requires state governments, which are responsible for important aspects of economic planning, infrastructure development and service delivery. Anumenechi pointed to Nigeria’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), the country’s climate commitments under the Paris Agreement, as an example of why state-level implementation matters.
While the federal government sets national emissions-reduction targets and climate priorities, she said states must determine what those commitments mean for their own development plans. “The NDC essentially says this is what Nigeria is going to do by 2030. Now, we have the federal NDC; what does that mean for Lagos, what does that mean for Delta, what does that mean for those states?” she asked.
She called for greater financial and technical support so that states can turn national policies into programmes reflecting local realities. “The Nigerian government is doing very good work. What I believe they need is more support, not just financial, but also technical, more support to achieve this aim at the grassroots,” she said.
Uneven Performance Across the States
Nigeria’s climate governance landscape illustrates the scale of the challenge. A 2026 assessment by the Subnational Climate Governance Information System, which examined climate governance across the country’s 36 states, found differences in state government performance. Lagos, Katsina and Kaduna emerged as the highest-ranked states, while Zamfara and Rivers ranked among the lowest.
The assessment also found that 23 states included climate-related projects in their 2025 appropriation laws. However, including projects in state budgets does not necessarily mean they were fully funded or implemented. Nigeria’s latest NDC further acknowledges that subnational institutions face capacity challenges in accessing international climate finance. The document also identifies limitations in the country’s system for tracking mitigation measures, making it difficult to provide more precise assessments of emissions reductions.
A Pragmatic Path Away From Fossil Fuels
Also speaking with PREMIUM TIMES at COP31, Keith Zondi, KwaZulu-Natal’s Member of the Executive Council for Economic Development, Tourism and Environmental Affairs in South Africa, said African countries need a pragmatic approach to the transition away from fossil fuels. South Africa, whose electricity system and economy have historically depended heavily on coal, faces the challenge of reducing emissions without undermining energy supply, employment and communities dependent on the fossil fuel industry.
Zondi said countries cannot immediately abandon existing energy sources without considering the economic consequences. “We are taking a pragmatic approach because we feel that we can’t immediately discard what we already have,” he said.
He argued that developed countries have a responsibility to support developing economies in financing the transition, particularly because African countries face different economic and development circumstances than wealthier nations. Funding, he said, would be required not only to develop renewable energy infrastructure but also to equip workers with the skills needed to participate in emerging industries.
“I’ve been speaking about not only injection of finance, but also cultivating a skill set that is going to enable the country to move away from fossil fuels into renewable sources of energy,” he said. Zondi added that African countries should not be expected to follow identical transition timelines, noting that their energy needs, economic structures and development levels differ.
The Tension at the Heart of the Just Transition
His comments reflect a central tension in the just transition debate: countries must reduce dependence on high-emission energy sources while ensuring the process does not deepen poverty, unemployment or energy insecurity. Nigeria is pursuing greater oil and gas production while also seeking to expand renewable energy and achieve its long-term net-zero target.
Zondi said Nigeria needs to assess its current economic position and make deliberate investments in cleaner energy without abruptly abandoning the industries its economy depends on. “You cannot punish immediately what the country depends on because the economy will collapse,” he said, advocating careful planning and a gradual shift towards cleaner energy. He also called on wealthier countries, which he said bear greater responsibility for historical pollution, to provide financial support to African economies.
South Africa’s experience shows how the just transition debate extends beyond replacing coal-fired electricity with renewable energy. The country’s Just Energy Transition Partnership has attracted international financing commitments, while its government has introduced initiatives to develop the skills needed for employment in emerging green industries. However, the availability and structure of finance remain important considerations, particularly for workers and communities that depend on coal-related economic activities.
For Nigeria, where oil and gas remain significant to public revenue and employment, a just transition would require similar attention to the economic consequences of changes in the energy sector. It would also require states to identify the industries, communities and workers likely to be affected and incorporate their needs into transition plans. As COP31 discussions continue, the message from both experts is clear: national targets alone will not deliver a just transition. State-level action, adequate financing and careful economic planning will determine whether Nigeria’s shift beyond oil protects the people it is meant to serve.
