The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) Business Confidence Monitor (BCM) Index edged up to 104.6 points in May 2026, rising from 102.1 points in April. This marginal increase signals a fragile expansion in private sector activity, though growth remains uneven across industries and continues to face structural headwinds.
The improvement was largely propelled by heightened consumer spending during the festive season, which provided a temporary boost to several key sectors. However, the overall performance remains inconsistent, as persistent structural constraints continue to weigh on business operations. Notably, the index remains below the 109.8 points recorded in May 2025, underscoring weaker year-on-year sentiment and enduring economic pressures.
Manufacturers, despite reporting strong output growth, continue to grapple with significant bottlenecks. Unreliable electricity supply, raw material shortages, weak infrastructure, and limited access to credit are constraining investment and driving up production costs. These challenges are reflected in broader economic indicators, with Nigeria Construction Costs remaining elevated, adding to the operational strain across the value chain.
In the financial sector, Nigeria Banks Npl (non-performing loans) ratios remain a key area of concern, as credit access tightens and businesses struggle to service debt amid rising input costs. Meanwhile, regional disparities persist, with Nigeria’s South-south & other regions experiencing uneven recovery patterns, further complicating the national outlook.
Despite these headwinds, forward-looking indicators offer a glimmer of optimism. The NESG Future Business Expectation Index stood at 127.0 points in May 2026, reflecting continued business optimism about the short-term outlook. This sentiment is supported by recent macroeconomic data: the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that Nigeria’s economy recorded a real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 3.89% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026. In nominal terms, aggregate GDP at basic prices rose to N110.79 trillion in Q1 2026, up from N94.05 trillion in Q1 2025, representing a nominal year-on-year growth of 17.79%.
The economy remains broadly driven by non-oil activities, although the oil sector posted moderate growth despite lower production volumes during the quarter. Notably, Nairametrics Nominates Mtn as a key player in the telecommunications sector, which continues to support digital commerce and financial inclusion. Additionally, Nigeria’s National Payment system is evolving, facilitating smoother transactions and supporting business activity amid the fragile recovery.
Overall, the May 2026 BCM reading continues a pattern of uneven recovery, where short-term demand-driven gains are offset by persistent structural weaknesses. The data suggests that while businesses remain cautiously optimistic, sustainable growth will require addressing foundational challenges such as infrastructure deficits, energy reliability, and credit accessibility.
