Nigeria’s push toward a low-carbon economy is raising urgent questions about the fate of the workers and communities whose livelihoods are tied to the country’s oil and gas sector. A new report from the Corporate Accountability and Public Participation Africa (CAPPA) warns that the country’s just transition plan does not yet offer adequate protection to the people most exposed to the shift away from fossil fuels.
The report, titled Four Years On: Examining Nigeria’s Just Transition Plan, was launched in Lagos on Tuesday. It identifies poor coordination among government institutions and uncertainty over funding as major obstacles to implementing the plan. It also highlights the absence of enforceable guarantees on retraining, income security and environmental restoration for affected workers and communities.
Workers and communities left without firm assurances
In his opening remarks at the launch, CAPPA Executive Director Akinbode Oluwafermi said responsibilities are dispersed across institutions, financing relies heavily on anticipated investment, and workers and affected communities lack sufficiently enforceable guarantees of income security, retraining and environmental repair.
CAPPA argued that progress should not be measured only by emissions targets and investment in renewable energy. The report noted that the transition must bring affordable and reliable electricity and provide sustainable livelihoods for those affected by changes in the energy sector.
The concerns echo calls by the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and energy transition experts for workers and host communities to have a greater say in the country’s energy policies.
Climate change as a workplace issue
At a discussion on a just and equitable transition in October, Chukwumerije Okereke, head of the British Research Academy, said climate change was also a workplace issue because workers were directly exposed to pollution and other environmental hazards.
Mr Okereke, a professor, called for training and skills development to prepare affected workers for employment in the emerging low-carbon economy. He urged the government to provide social protection, including adequate compensation, early retirement benefits and timely payment of pensions to those who lose their jobs.
Eche Asuzu, the NLC’s Head of Climate Change, said a just transition required fair governance arrangements and an equitable distribution of the benefits and costs of energy projects. He called for more research into the concerns of communities affected by mining and other energy-related projects, saying some had complained of displacement, inadequate compensation and poor responses from companies and government authorities.
Although Nigeria has policies and regulations intended to protect affected communities, Mr Asuzu said poor implementation and monitoring remained major problems. He urged federal, state and local governments to work with companies and host communities to address them.
What Nigeria’s transition plan promises
Nigeria launched its Energy Transition Plan in 2022, setting a target of net-zero emissions by 2060. The plan covers five sectors: power, cooking, transport, industry, and oil and gas.
The government says it is designed to tackle energy poverty, reduce emissions and support economic development. It includes managing expected job losses in the oil sector as global demand for fossil fuels declines, while creating employment in power, cooking and transport.
In September 2025, Nigeria submitted its third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, updating its climate commitments.
Under the pledge, the country committed to reducing emissions by 32.2 per cent by 2030, achieving universal electricity access and increasing renewable energy’s share of the power mix to 50 per cent. It also set a target of increasing new electricity connections by nine per cent annually.
The updated contribution includes economy-wide emissions reduction targets of 168.2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2030 and 184.9 million tonnes by 2035, relative to 2018 levels.
The funding challenge
The government estimates that implementing the commitments will cost about $337 billion between 2026 and 2035. Of this amount, $195 billion is earmarked for emissions reduction and about $141.5 billion for climate adaptation. Another $500 million is allocated to climate empowerment activities.
Nigeria expects to raise $67 billion domestically, with the remaining $270 billion — about 80 per cent of the total — expected from international sources through grants, concessional finance and technology support.
Nigeria is not alone in facing a climate financing shortfall. Developing countries generally lack the funding needed to prepare for and respond to climate change.
In its 2026 Adaptation Gap Report, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) estimated that developing countries would need about $305 billion annually by 2035 to adapt to climate change.
International public finance for adaptation stood at between $28.2 billion and $31.7 billion in 2024, an increase of only about $1 billion from the previous year.
UNEP said even tripling international public adaptation finance, as envisaged under an agreement reached at the previous climate conference, would cover only 20 to 29 per cent of developing countries’ estimated needs by 2035. The report identified institutional barriers to implementing adaptation measures and warned that losses and damage linked to climate change were continuing to rise.
UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said the world was not adequately prepared for current climate conditions, let alone the consequences of global warming exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Nigeria’s climate finance gap in focus
A separate assessment by the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) provides a picture of Nigeria’s climate finance before its latest commitments were submitted.
In its May 2025 report, Landscape of Climate Finance in Nigeria 2025, CPI estimated that $2.5 billion in public and private finance went towards climate action in 2021 and 2022. That was 32 per cent more than the $1.9 billion recorded in 2019 and 2020.
Despite the increase, CPI put Nigeria’s annual climate finance gap at $27.2 billion. The $2.5 billion recorded over the two years was less than one per cent of the country’s gross domestic product. CPI also noted that the amount was considerably lower than the $9.3 billion the government spent on fossil fuel subsidies in 2022.
Public institutions provided 70 per cent of the climate finance tracked by the organisation, while private actors accounted for 30 per cent. Multilateral development finance institutions alone supplied 48 per cent of the total.
Corporations accounted for more than three-fifths of private climate finance, with much of their investment going into small-scale solar power projects.
CPI found that projects aimed at reducing emissions attracted more funding than measures to help communities adapt to climate change. Mitigation received $1.2 billion, compared with $740 million for adaptation. The latter covered only six per cent of Nigeria’s estimated adaptation finance needs.
About half of the adaptation funding went to agriculture, forestry, other land use and fisheries. The report found little funding for climate-resilient infrastructure in sectors such as energy, buildings, transport and industry.
Concessional loans accounted for 54 per cent of tracked international public climate finance, while non-concessional loans made up another 35 per cent. The organisation warned that reliance on loans could add to Nigeria’s fiscal burden.
Why the just transition debate matters
The CAPPA report lands at a critical moment for Nigeria’s energy policy. As the country balances its net-zero ambitions against the economic realities of an oil-dependent economy, the question of who bears the cost of the transition is becoming harder to avoid.
For workers in the oil and gas sector, the shift to cleaner energy carries the risk of job losses without clear pathways to new employment. For host communities, it raises fears of environmental damage left unrepaired and compensation promises left unfulfilled.
The report’s central message is that a transition measured only in emissions reductions and renewable investment falls short. Without enforceable protections, coordinated institutions and reliable funding, the workers and communities at the heart of Nigeria’s energy economy risk being left behind by the very plan meant to secure their future.
